变形金刚中国联盟社区：TFCLUB社区

标题: 【估计下票房】 [打印本页]

作者: morning 时间: 2007-7-2 08:51
标题: 【估计下票房】
大家猜一下这次变形金刚的全球票房能达到多少？

作者: Ass 时间: 2007-7-2 08:56
全球票房7亿美元以上~~~（保守估计）

[ Last edited by Ass on 2007-7-2 at 08:58 ]

作者: Ass 时间: 2007-7-2 09:01
如果乐观的话，绝对有突破10亿美元的可能~~~

作者: 擎天柱 时间: 2007-7-2 09:21
美本土2~5亿,海外4-9亿,按这个档期的惯例看,这个差不多....

作者: oracle 时间: 2007-7-2 10:02
不太乐观楼上的各位
根据身边人的普编态度，男性中有1/3的人认为失去了原来小时候的感觉，角色差距大。女性中5/6以上的人认为是两堆废铁在打，太生硬。
受欢迎度明显不如加勒比海盗3。
所以还是谨慎些

作者: butcher 时间: 2007-7-2 10:34

Originally posted by 擎天柱 at 2007-7-2 09:21:
美本土2~5亿,海外4-9亿,按这个档期的惯例看,这个差不多....

2-5亿??这也差太多了吧,
你把可能性全包了
2亿的话,很失败
3亿的话,大家都算满意
4亿的话,片商笑不动了
5亿...,历史纪录了,虽然还是排不到第一, ,但这就破了SW的记录, 估计没这可能

我猜3亿5千W

作者: ghost1 时间: 2007-7-2 10:39
我也估计三亿左右。

作者: basesonic 时间: 2007-7-2 10:58
全球来看我估计4亿以上没问题，但5亿很难说。

作者: bob0827 时间: 2007-7-2 11:10
我猜，怎么说10亿美圆可定能拿下的！再怎么说全球有那么多的FANS存在，拍得再怎么烂也得进影院看一回吧？

作者: oracle 时间: 2007-7-2 15:00
TF的粉丝没SW多，也未必比超人蝙蝠侠的粉丝多，所以么～～～

冷静些现实些

作者: 铁皮 时间: 2007-7-2 15:33

Originally posted by oracle at 2007-7-2 15:00:
TF的粉丝没SW多，也未必比超人蝙蝠侠的粉丝多，所以么～～～

冷静些现实些

公众片不是靠粉丝来保障票房的，粉丝永远是少数人群。票房是否看就看宣传炒作的策略以及口碑，例如我就不是蜘蛛侠和金刚的粉丝，但我还是去电影院看了，因为身边的人都在谈论都在吹捧，所以看看变形金刚首映后大众的观感口碑以及炒作得怎样，这个很重要，当初去看一部电影就是因为一群同事看完都说爽，而且成为主要话题之一，某杂志还说不看《金刚》就不是人之类的话，搞不去看都不好意思了。

作者: 蓝色擎天柱 时间: 2007-7-2 16:25
楼上的说的有道理

有几个人是张艺谋的粉丝？

鹰熊
石棉卖夫
满城尽是大馒头

还不是被挤到电影院爆炸？

还有无聊野宴之类的片子也是

作者: sasking 时间: 2007-7-2 16:34

Originally posted by 蓝色擎天柱 at 2007-7-2 16:25:
楼上的说的有道理

有几个人是张艺谋的粉丝？

鹰熊
石棉卖夫
满城尽是大馒头

还不是被挤到电影院爆炸？

还有无聊野宴之类的片子也是

...蓝色~~~能不能写的正确点,都是谐音

作者: DARK-SIDE 时间: 2007-7-2 16:38
8 亿～～！床垫

作者: 雷少年 时间: 2007-7-2 16:57
综艺杂志：上周是《绿怪3》在海外52个电影市场6489个放映场次里拿下了6960万美圆，成为上周海外票房的冠军。《变形金刚》在海外10个电影市场2261个放映场次里拿下了3470万美圆，成为亚军。在韩国，《变形金刚》是韩国历史上首映票房第四高的电影，拿下了1240万，在新加坡，则是历史上首映4天收成最好的电影，拿下170万美圆。在上映该片的十个国家和地区，《变形金刚》都是领头羊，包括澳大利亚670万，意大利360万，中国台湾300万，菲律宾210万。在其中八个地区，它都超过了之前的〈世界大战〉。下周末，《变形金刚》将在更多国家上映，包括俄罗斯、西班牙和斯堪的纳维亚等

'Shrek' tops overseas box office
'Transformers' int'l release brings in $34.7 mil
By DAVE MCNARY
'Shrek the Third' was the weekend's top performer in a robust foreign box office.

The ugly ogre's sitting pretty overseas as "Shrek the Third" dominated a robust weekend at the foreign box office with $69.6 million at 6,489 playdates in 52 markets.

But there was plenty of international green for tentpoles as "Transformers" debuted ahead of its U.S. launch with a stellar $34.7 million at 2,261 in 10 territories and "Live Free or Die Hard" shot down a solid $30.7 million at 3,583 in day and date openings in 35 markets.

And a trio of holdovers -- "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer," "Ocean's Thirteen" and "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" -- impressed with each grossing at least $14 million.

With the top six pics combining for $179 million, the frame dwarfed the year-ago weekend when "Superman Returns" led with $20 million amid a chill in moviegoing due to soccer's World Cup. And it highlighted the strong performance so far this year of Hollywood films in foreign markets, well above 2006's record-setting pace.

The tentpoles are mostly meeting studio expectations that each sequel can match its previous iteration, underlining the strategy of focusing on easily recognized franchises that can perform throughout the world. The third "Pirates of the Caribbean" became only the seventh pic to cross the $600 million mark in international grosses and trails the final "Pirates 2" foreign cume by only $33 million after six weeks; "Shrek the Third" has already grossed $259 million overseas, more than halfway to matching "Shrek 2."

Paramount's "Shrek the Third" grabbed an eye-popping $31 million at 537 in its U.K. launch, including $12.7 million in previews in an indication that Brits were undeterred by the latest wave of terror threats. Minus previews, the opening came in 5% ahead of "Shrek 2," which went on to gross $88 million in Blighty.

French patrons stayed supportive in the third frame as Shrek declined only 29% to $5.3 million for a $29.2 million cume while Spanish biz remained beefy with a 37% fall to $4.8 million. And the ogre turned monstrous in Poland, smashing the launch record with $4.1 million at 88, and set the second-highest opening mark in South Africa with $921,000.

"Shrek the Third" opened more moderately in Japan -- where American animated pics have a mixed record -- with $2.8 million at 542, trailing the launch of "Live Free or Die Hard" and the sixth frame of "Pirates 3." Still, that was 42% ahead of "Shrek 2," which went on to gross $22 million in Japan.

Paramount also saw stalwart numbers from "Transformers," which logged the top per-location average with $15,351, as the disrib opted for playing into local holidays plus distancing itself from Warner's mid-July launch of "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix." South Korea sparked to "Transformers" in the fourth biggest launch ever with $12.4 million at 549 while the Michael Bay pic posted the best 4-day launch ever in Singapore with $1.7 million.

"Transformers" led in all 10 of its markets, including Australia with $6.7 million, Italy with $3.6 million, Taiwan with $3 million and the Philippines with $2.1 million; in eight of those, it topped "War of the Worlds," which rang up a stellar $357 million overseas in 2005. "Transformers" moves into a dozen more markets next weekend, including Russia, Spain and Scandinavia.

"Live Free or Die Hard," known mostly by the "Die Hard 4" moniker internationally, turned in its top numbers in Germany with $7.6 million at 873 and in Japan with $7.2 million at 735 in the first appearance of the Bruce Willis franchise in a dozen years. Fox Intl. co-topper Paul Hanneman asserted the performance met internal forecasts -- geared to matching the $265 million international cume for 1995's "Die Hard With a Vengeance."

Fox's "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer" also showed enough traction to remain on track to equal the international performance by its predecessor, which took in $175 million two years ago. "Surfer" landed with $15.2 million at 6,200, pushing the cume to $81.2 million, as Mexico kicked in $3.3 million in its second frame and Brazil launched with a beefy $2.9 million; it opens in August in France, Korea and Spain.

Warner's "Ocean's Thirteen" chipped in with $14.5 million at 5,700 in 51 markets to raise its foreign cume to $124 million -- more than halfway to matching the final overseas figure for "Ocean's Twelve" -- as the studio sees respectable performance from counter-programming against fare aimed at the younger demo. "Thirteen" took in its best figures in its second French frame with $2.2 million, its fourth U.K. weekend with $1.9 million and its Mexican launch of $1.8 million.

BVI's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" followed with $14.1 million at 8,779, led by Japan with $3.9 million and France and the U.K. with $1.4 million each -- all with impressive holds, falling less than 28%. It's now sixth highest in foreign grosses at $608.9 million and ninth in worldwide at $904.7 million.

BVI also saw decent numbers from its limited day and date opening of "Ratatouille" with $4.7 million at 520 in half a dozen markets, mostly from Russia with $3.3 million. The Pixar pic moves into Brazil and Mexico next frame and will launch gradually over the rest of the summer and early fall as the distrib tries to take advantage of strong reviews.

Sony's "Spider-Man 3," which fulfilled forecasts as it jump-started summer biz overseas, ensnared $1 million to become the 10th largest international film with $548.9 million and the ninth biggest globally with $883 million.

Other notable pics during the frame included Sony's "Hostel Part II" with $2.2 million, Warner's "Zodiac" with $1.2 million and U's "Evan Almighty" with $900,000.

作者: 蓝色擎天柱 时间: 2007-7-2 17:22
世界大战这种烂片就别拿来比了

比当年的独立日和泰坦尼克号吧

作者: DARK-SIDE 时间: 2007-7-2 17:54
世界大战我觉得还可以的嘛......

作者: 蓝色擎天柱 时间: 2007-7-2 17:57
关键是火星人因为病毒而挂掉的情节凸现太突然了

小说里的过渡就自然些

推荐看原著

作者: Iurvl 时间: 2007-7-2 20:57

Originally posted by 蓝色擎天柱 at 2007-7-2 17:57:
关键是火星人因为病毒而挂掉的情节凸现太突然了

小说里的过渡就自然些

推荐看原著

同感，让人感觉投资方没钱了，草草收尾

作者: Iurvl 时间: 2007-7-2 20:58
不要低估了疯狂的小魔法师，毕竟现今的青少年受他影响更大

作者: watermelon 时间: 2007-7-2 23:14
台灣的報紙在首映隔日就寫,上看台幣1.5億......

我們這兒的華納影城,每20分鐘演一場,還有午夜場演到2,3點,我都覺得很誇張啊........20分鐘一場,至少不會說擠到買不到票哈......

作者: HIGASHILIN 时间: 2007-7-3 01:02

Originally posted by bob0827 at 2007-7-2 11:10:
我猜，怎么说10亿美圆可定能拿下的！再怎么说全球有那么多的FANS存在，拍得再怎么烂也得进影院看一回吧？

全球到底有多少TF的FANS，能有10亿票房，我看也太过夸张了，论FANS的数量TF远远比不过美国英雄系列，成功不能只靠FANS，要让公众所接受，不觉得随着TF电影的上市越来越多新的群体加入进来了吗？如果没有这部电影的话，TF还只是一个比较小的圈子，至少我在论坛时根本没看到一下子冒出这么多人，真正的铁杆刚丝其实并不多。

作者: 万宝路 时间: 2007-7-3 03:02
说影片票房能超过泰坦尼克的是纯粹的扯淡（泰坦尼克首映票房一点都不高，但人家连续18个礼拜霸占北美票房榜榜首，你认为目前有可能有电影能做到嘛？目前的巨片能霸占票房排行榜2－3周已经是无敌了）

说影片全球票房能过10亿的纯粹是一点常识都没有，蜘蛛侠1全球票房才8亿多点，以为破10亿票房那么容易吗？

根据大部分影评人估计，影片的北美总票房大概在2亿－3亿之间，全球票房在5－8亿之间

如果能达到这样的成绩已经可以让派拉蒙和梦工场开庆功会了

作者: 万宝路 时间: 2007-7-3 03:07
好莱坞历史上，全球票房超过10亿的，只有3部电影

分别是：泰坦尼克：18亿
指环王3王者归来：11亿
加勒比海盗2：10.6亿

要想全球票房过10亿，有2个方法：

第一：美国本土票房至少4亿以上

第二：奥斯卡至少拿10座奖项

作者: 万宝路 时间: 2007-7-3 03:13
LZ还别看不起《世界大战》

世界大战北美票房2.3亿，全球票房将近6亿

影片投资才1.32亿

这已经是非常不错的成绩了，变形金刚能达到这样的成绩，对我来说，已经满足了

作者: guoherbert 时间: 2007-7-3 03:19
楼上的说法和我这个纯粹的外行估的倒差不多……
http://club.tfclub.com/viewthread.php?tid=8972

作者: ghost1 时间: 2007-7-3 09:25
我严惩同意万宝路同学。
我现在在想TF到处到搞首映，大概就是向世界推广，但是不会别处开花过多，自己本土上映是失去新鲜感吧？

作者: qetuo105s 时间: 2007-7-3 11:24
现在最令人担心的，就是对于正邪双方过于脸谱化的描写，以及过份夸大人类的作用，这样有违原著精神的内容，会造成多大的负面影响，从而拖累票房。

作者: 万宝路 时间: 2007-7-3 12:26
我明说吧，这电影根本就不是单独为了照顾fans拍的，违背不违背原著精神，得看在什么条件下，如果制片商认为影片如果稍微背弃原著可以取得更好的票房，那就绝对会去做，影片的宗旨就是让变态狂热的fans会感到这勉强算一部变形金刚电影，让普通fans感觉到这是一部变形金刚电影，让有同年回忆的人能够取得共鸣，让从来没看过的人能够看的过瘾，当然皆大欢喜的是所有人都满意

就算是违背原著精神，只要这电影还叫变形金刚，里面还有擎天柱，威震天，大黄蜂这些名字，以及主要的线索和梗概，只要它其他地方做的好，比如特技，效果，那它对除了狂热fans以外的所有人在“原著精神”这方面基本没什么影响，虽然看过变形金刚的人不少，但还能记住具体所有情节以及“原著精神”的100个里能有一个就不错了，何况，既然是狂热fans，如果别人说是垃圾，违背原著精神，你认为他们难道就不会去看嘛？我只能说他们不会去看第2遍罢了

变形金刚这个名字，只是个幌子，具体它是不是“挂羊头卖狗肉”，我们自然进去希望卖的是羊肉，但只要你买票进了场，那它的目的就达到了，是狗肉是羊肉也只是观众个人问题了

不过目前网上的口碑看来，它的确是货真价实的“羊肉”

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